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When Something Big Is Happening

Learning to act and collaborate while the world changes around us.

Change arrives in layers; choice remains in our hands.
Change arrives in layers; choice remains in our hands. · Original concept cover
Original on WeChatAI & our human future

Matt Shumer’s sweeping essay, ‘Something Big Is Happening,’ recently caused a stir on X. In less than 24 hours, it passed 20 million views; by today, it has received more than 80 million. The author uses a striking analogy to explain the changes happening in AI: think back to February 2020, when the pandemic was just beginning. The stock market was doing well. Children were in school. You went to restaurants, shook hands, and planned trips. If someone told you they were stockpiling toilet paper, you would have thought they had spent too much time online. Then, within three weeks, the whole world changed. Offices closed. Children stayed home. Life became something you could not have imagined a month earlier.

That really does describe the state of the AI world today. Think carefully about the series of events over the past few days and weeks, and you will find that, in just a few days, some of the most powerful AI systems have once again undergone dramatic changes.

The arrival of GLM-5 has allowed it to leap ahead in programming and close in on the frontier. Seedance 2.0 has made the video industry feel, once again, the profound upheaval that lies ahead. Soon afterward, Qwen3.5, an open-source model, entered the upper ranks occupied by closed-source models and topped the leaderboards again. OpenAI’s Codex5.3 and Anthropic’s Opus4.6 are competing for first place in programming. Google’s Deep Think achieved programming performance ranked eighth in the world on Codeforces, with only seven people ahead of it globally. And today, Gemini 3.1 Pro, with twice the accuracy, has decisively surpassed Gemini 3 Pro—the model placed on a pedestal just three months ago—setting new state-of-the-art results and pulling far ahead. Meanwhile, AI systems we considered quite powerful only a few months ago have already become old products, taken down and retired.

In just two weeks, constantly changing leaderboards and ever-rising numbers have revealed what lies behind the AI race: the rapid expansion of what machines can do. For AI, a few weeks are like decades or centuries; a few months ago already feels like another world.

Think back to that winter three years ago. Siri was still Siri, Xiaodu was still Xiaodu, and GPT-3.5 had just been released. Large language models were in their infancy, yet they were already astonishing. At the time, the model knew almost nothing. It could not access the internet. Its language abilities were mocked. It could not recognize objects or tell lies. People believed machines could never replace human intelligence and that repetitive labor would be the first thing to go. Three years later, in the spring of 2026, it is more capable than the vast majority of people. Its programming ability is reaching ever greater heights, while its abilities in mathematics, logic, and language are surging. It thinks what you cannot think and does what you cannot do. It has permeated nearly every frontier field—finance, technology, education, and medicine—and is beginning to challenge the peaks of human knowledge, reaching places we have not yet reached.

In mathematics, Google AI has released six doctoral-level papers in succession, sweeping through 18 major research problems. In finance, an empirical research paper that a Stanford professor completed with AI in less than an hour caused a sensation for its exceptionally high accuracy. When GPT-5.2 Pro independently proves a conjecture that has stood for 45 years; when Deep Think meets the gold-medal standard at the International Mathematical Olympiad and achieves a similar result at the ICPC; when AI can quickly complete tasks that take human experts almost five hours, with that figure doubling roughly every five to seven months—when AI fully enters the deep waters of human knowledge, do those of us who have grown numb to the daily leaderboard changes feel a slight chill down our spines?

A year ago, one iteration took a month to several months. Now it takes only days to weeks. Yet we have nothing that can limit the speed of its progress…

The torrent of iterative evolution never pauses for humanity at any particular moment. Even when we think its current pace is already dizzying, it continues to accelerate wildly.

AI is taking part in its own research and development, and the loop of recursive improvement will soon close. When releasing Codex5.3, OpenAI said: ‘GPT-5.3 Codex is our first model to play a key role in its own creation. The Codex team used its early versions to debug its own training, manage its own deployment, and diagnose test and evaluation results.’ AI is being used to build itself. When the vast majority of OpenAI’s code is entrusted to AI, and when the Claude team develops Coworker entirely through AI programming, AI iterates on the next generation of AI, day and night, without sleep or pause, again and again. Academia has also formally taken up the challenge of self-evolution. For the first time, ICLR 2025 included a workshop on ‘Scaling Self-improving Foundation Models,’ exploring how model performance might continually improve without human supervision.

Looking back at earlier industrial revolutions and the third scientific and technological revolution, energy and power replaced older tools and allowed people to work more efficiently. This AI revolution is fundamentally different: what it replaces is the process of labor itself! As that process disappears, execution loses its weight and becomes commoditized. When the physical and mental effort of typing code, deriving basic equations, or even building conventional models is compressed without limit, humanity’s position in the production chain undergoes an irreversible shift.

In responding to the torrent of our times, Shumer believes the greatest advantage now is to move first: to understand it first, use it first, and adapt to it first. We cannot go against the larger trend, so we must learn to live and work with it, gaining that early advantage. Many people reassure themselves—or say with some arrogance—that without AI, people could not accomplish many things. But the fact is that the world can never return to a time without AI. AI will not disappear. The ultimate measure of a person’s ability is no longer that ability alone, but a nonlinear combination of individual ability and the ability to use AI. The height that combination ultimately reaches is your height. On this point, Shumer says: put your pride aside. That law-firm partner did not think using AI was embarrassing because of their senior position. The people who will suffer most are those who refuse to participate: those who dismiss AI as a gimmick, those who think using it diminishes their professionalism, and those who assume their field is special and immune. No field is special.

I have always believed that learning how to collaborate with AI, and how to use this combined capability to accomplish goals almost beyond individual ability, is an important enough question to pursue. Since AI is already here, we should no longer confine our thinking to working in isolation. We should look at larger undertakings, at our curiosity about the world, and at our passion for doing something significant. We have never felt this before: everyone stands on equal footing before AI. We have never stood so close to the same starting line of creation. In this turbulent, uncertain environment of creation, with few barriers and many intersecting transitions, we can release our enthusiasm, curiosity, and creativity, and unleash tremendous energy. This is a redistribution of capability!

The future is here. Do your best to feel what that future means, and then begin immediately! Waiting is the greatest waste of the talent that each of you possesses.

Matt Shumer的一篇雄文《Something Big Is Happening》最近在X上引发了轩然大波,不到24小时,阅读量便突破2000万,到了今天,已经有的八千多万的阅读量。作者用了一个精辟的类比来说明现在ai的变化:想想2020年2月,疫情刚刚开始的时候。股市很好,孩子在上学,你出入餐厅,和人握手,计划旅行。如果有人告诉你他正在囤卫生纸,你会觉得这人在互联网上待傻了。然后,三周之内,整个世界变了。办公室关了,孩子回家了,生活变成了一种你一个月前根本无法想象的样子。

这的确就是现在ai圈的现状。仔细思考一下这几天,这一段时间发生的一系列事情,就可以发现,短短数天内,一些最强大的ai再一次发生了翻天覆地的变化。

GLM-5的问世在编程领域内弯道超车,直逼最前沿;seeddance2.0的出现让视频行业再一次的深刻体会到了即将到来的剧变;紧随其后的Qwen3.5以开源模型打入闭源的高区再一次刷榜,open ai的Codex5.3和anthropic的opus4.6角逐编程榜首,Google的deepthink在Codeforces上取得了世界第八的编程能力,全球仅7人位居其前,而在今天Gemini 3.1 pro以两倍的准确率打爆了三个月前被捧上神坛的Gemini 3 pro再次刷爆sota一骑绝尘,而数月前我们觉得已经比较强大的ai已成旧物,下架离场。

在短短两周之内,不断刷新的榜单伴着愈发高涨的数字,ai角逐的背后是机器能力版图的极速扩张,数周的时间于AI如同十年百年,数月前已是沧海桑田。

回想3年前的那个冬天,Siri还是siri,小度还是小度,GPT-3.5刚刚发布,大模型如婴儿般刚刚萌芽,但依旧足够令人震撼,当时的它几乎一无所知,无法联网,语言能力遭人嘲弄,不会识物,无法说谎,人们认为机器永远不可能替代人的智慧,最初替代的应该是重复的劳作。3年后,2026年的春天,他几乎比绝大部分的人要厉害,编程能力愈发巅峰造极,数学逻辑语言各方面能力喷涌爆发,想你无法想,做你无法做,在金融,科技,教育,医疗几乎所有的前沿领域全面渗透,开始挑战人类知识的巅峰,臻至未至之境。

在数学界,谷歌AI连续发布6篇博士级别的论文,一举横扫18大核心科研难题;在金融界,斯坦福教授不到1小时使用ai完成的实证研究论文以极高的准确率引发轰动;当45年的猜想被GPT-5.2pro独立完成证明,当deepthink在国际奥林匹克竞赛上达到了金奖标准,并在ICPC上取得了类似的成绩;当AI能在短时间完成人类专家需要将近五个小时才能搞定的任务。而这个数字约每五到七个月翻一倍。当AI正式全面攻入人类知识的深水区,每天看着榜单变化而麻木的你我是否感受到了一丝脊背发凉?

一年前的它完成一次迭代需要一月到数月之久,而今只需几天到数周,然而我们并没有能限制它进步速度的东西……

迭代进化的洪流从来不会在某一个时刻因人而停息,当我们认为现在的速度已经令人头晕目眩的时候,其依旧在疯狂加速。

AI正在参与自我研发,递归提升的闭环很快就会完成,发布codex5.3的同时,openai曾言:GPT-5.3 Codex 是我们第一个在自身创建过程中发挥了关键作用的模型。Codex 团队利用其早期版本来调试自身的训练,管理自身的部署,并诊断测试结果与评估结果。AI正被用于自我构建。当open ai绝大多数的代码被交给ai完成,当Claude团队完全用ai编程完成了coworker的开发,ai迭代下一代的ai,日夜无眠,永不停息,循此往复。而对于自进化的研究,学界已经对其正式的发起了挑战。ICLR2025首次在Workshop中设置了Scaling Self-improving Foundation Models的主题,探讨没有人类监督的情况下持续自我提升模型性能。

从过去的几次工业革命和第三次科技革命来看,能源动力取代的是以往的工具,让人类更加高效的劳动,而这一次的ai革命与以往有着本质的区别,取代的是劳动过程本身!劳动过程的消亡,意味着执行的分量被消解和商品化。当敲击键盘编写代码、推导基础方程、甚至搭建常规模型的体力与脑力消耗被无限压缩,人类在生产链路中的坐标便发生了不可逆的变迁。

对于应对时代的洪流,舒默认为现在最大的优势就是抢占先机:率先理解它,率先使用它,率先适应它。我们无法违逆大势所趋,所以必须学会与其共处,合作,达到抢占先机的目的!很多人自我安慰或者自大的说失去了ai很多事情都办不到,但是事实是,世界已经再也回不到没有ai的时候了,ai不可能消失,个人能力的最终定量再也不是个人能力本身,而是个人能力与使用ai能力的非线性叠加,最后能达到的高度就是你的高度。对于此,舒默这样说:放下你的自尊。那位律所合伙人没有因为自己位高权重就觉得用AI丢人。最痛苦的将是那些拒绝参与的人:那些把AI斥为噱头的人,那些觉得用AI会贬低自己专业性的人,那些假设自己的领域特殊且具有免疫力的人。没有哪个领域是特殊的。

笔者始终认为,如何与ai合作,如何用这样的综合能力达到个人能力几乎难以完成的目标是一个足够重要的课题,既然ai已经产生,我们便不能把思维再局限于闭门造车中,而是应该将眼光放入一些整体的事情上,放在对这个世界的好奇上,放在干大事的热血上。因为,我们从未有如此感觉,所有人在ai面前将一视同仁,我们从未如此站在同一条创造的起跑线上,在几乎少有壁垒的这个混乱,不确定,正处于交叉过渡中的创造环境中释放自己的无限的热情,好奇心,创造力,进而迸发出巨大的能量。这是能力的再分配!

未来已来,请尽力的去感受何为未来,然后立刻开始!等待才是对每一个拥有才能的你的才能的最大的浪费。

AFTERWORD · EDITORIAL NOTE

Reading notes

The dense account of technological change creates an accelerating reading rhythm before the essay turns toward action and collaboration. Its more enduring question is how an individual reorganizes learning and creation as capabilities change.

When returning to a commentary of this kind, particular products and rankings belong to its original publication moment. Questions that remain useful include how to verify a capability, choose a problem and turn an attempt into work that can be inspected.

密集的技术叙述形成了加速的阅读节奏,后半部分再转向行动与合作。文章更长久的问题,是能力变化以后,个人怎样重新组织自己的学习与创造。

回看这类时评,可以把具体产品和榜单留在原始发表时间中,再单独思考持续有效的判断:如何验证能力,如何选择问题,以及如何把一次尝试变成可检查的作品。

Portrait of Siyao Lan

LANCER · SIYAO LAN

Research, reading, creation, and lived experience.

Here, technological change returns to human stories.

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